More mathematics of electricity

[pcrussell50]

absolutely true, and I spent my share of time as an in house defense guy

Despite that, perhaps the 100% tariffs are also a factor.

If Chinese cars are ever able to get safety-certified in the USA, I'd imagine the tariffs will be a factor, yes.

When did the 100% tariffs go into effect? Politics and economics are not my thing, just science and tech.

-Peter

[Chaz]

Except that China exports lots of EVs. Just not to North America

You should speak only for the 51st state. Not for the 50 original states. I can tell you now, it's because we don't want any shizbox chinese golf carts. Ehh

[David]

Ford’s CEO daily drove a Chinese EV for a while. He said that the Chinese had a technology lead, a cost lead, and had high quality.

Chinese NCAP is similar to Euro NCAP and both are more demanding than US safety rules. NCAP is a vehicle safety rating. The US had the first NCAP. Now every region has one.

As implied above, Canada did follow the US with a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs. Low cost high quality 5 minute charge time EVs would sell here in the absence of a big tariff

[XstreamVking]

Sounds like he should be working at a Chinese car co. Ford has joint partnerships in China with 3 car co's, so he's just making pro Chinese comments. Should be concentrating on Ford quality control at our American and Canadian plants. He's not admitting these things go up in flames and some carriers will not transport them. We don't have them here for that reason along with the other safety concerns..

[David]

China graduates 10X as many engineers per year as the US. BYD alone employs 120,000 engineers, more or less as many as Tesla's entire workforce. It could be tough to compete against that many engineers. Although one of the things that impressed me about Tesla, when I worked in the auto parts biz, was how few people Tesla had. Tesla really did do more with less. But 120,000 engineers!

[Chaz]

Working in the service end of things my whole life. It's been my experience that it's taken a handful of experienced craftsman with a bit of common sense to fix all the fk'ups created by the pencil pushers and bean counters.
No wonder they have so many fires, bunch of book nerds with no practice experience pushing untested junk to market, with no real-world testing to back it up.

Why did the ford exec. drive a ching-chong car. Thats easy, his lib-tard azz donated to kumla's hoax and wanted to be on the ground floor of the green new scam.

Bye-Bye ... golf cart incentive's .. Drill baby drill ...

[pcrussell50]

China graduates 10X as many engineers per year as the US. BYD alone employs 120,000 engineers, more or less as many as Tesla's entire workforce. It could be tough to compete against that many engineers. Although one of the things that impressed me about Tesla, when I worked in the auto parts biz, was how few people Tesla had. Tesla really did do more with less. But 120,000 engineers!

That's awesome. I wish there was more emphasis on scientific literacy in the West than there is. It would even help people in the West make better political decisions if they understood how their elected officials help or hurt their lives through science/energy policy.

Re the topic, here's where we are right now:

1) lithium ion: is faaar past any more big impromvents. It's all going to be little improvements and not much at that. The tighter you pack it, the more fragile it gets, the shorter it lives before it won't hold a charge any more, the more of a fire bomb it becomes, and the more expensive it gets, (exponentially). Lithium ion is pretty near the end of it's run. It's been a good run. Coming up on 35 years now, but it's pretty tapped out as far as any more big improvements. It took 35 years just to double, and it's going to be exponentially harder to triple it, if it's even possible at all.

I think a lot of people's awareness of batteries and lithium ion came about through Tesla and cars and thinking that battery cars green, what have you. Nevertheless, the finest minds in science have been working on improving lithium ion since way before that, since the day it came out in consumer electronic devices. EVERYBODY was and is pursuing smaller lighter slimmer, laptops, cell phones, smart watches, wireless head phones and ear buds, Bluetooth speakers, MP3 players (remember those?). It was (still is) the holy grail in the technology world. So it's a BIG ignorance, to think that this battery race all started with Tesla ten years ago.

2) electric motors: Not much room here either. They're already super efficient. Some room for improvement but they are well into the 90 percent, pushing 98 percent for some.

3) The elephant in the room... some kind of new battery tech: this is where it's going to have to go, or else we'll have to wait for portable fusion generators. But nothing seems to make it far out of the lab environment. Solid state is a 200 year old idea, and the same problems that plagued it 200 years ago, are the ones that are plaguing it today. Hyper expensive and hyper fragile, and both issues go up exponentially with size. There are some SSB's in tiny devices like pace makers.* (Don't be fooled by terminology like "semi" solid state. It's just a buzz word to get the dreamers all frothy. It has no relation to actual solid state at all, and is not a stepping stone to actual solid state.) Solid state is where all the hype is right now, but the problems are immense, and it's been "just around the corner" for a long time. Who knows if this time it's for real. Also, don't rule out some other battery tech. Nobody knows what it will be yet because again, the hopeful ideas rarely make it out of the labs. One thing is FOR SURE, the finest minds in science have been working on it since lithium ion came out, 35 years ago. It's just that once you filter out all the hopes and dreams, it remains a TOUGH scientific problem.

*My uncle died not long ago when his pace maker battery failed. Living so far away, I'm no longer close enough to the family to find out if he had a solid state battery in his, that failed. But he had a lot of money and was the type who would be interested in that kind of thing.

-Peter

[David]

BYD sells a moderately priced (ie gas car level) EV that can get 200 miles of range in a 5 minute charge. Maybe battery tech has progressed enough.

[CUDA]

That's awesome. I wish there was more emphasis on scientific literacy in the West than there is. It would even help people in the West make better political decisions if they understood how their elected officials help or hurt their lives through science/energy policy.

Re the topic, here's where we are right now:

1) lithium ion: is faaar past any more big impromvents. It's all going to be little improvements and not much at that. The tighter you pack it, the more fragile it gets, the shorter it lives before it won't hold a charge any more, the more of a fire bomb it becomes, and the more expensive it gets, (exponentially). Lithium ion is pretty near the end of it's run. It's been a good run. Coming up on 35 years now, but it's pretty tapped out as far as any more big improvements. It took 35 years just to double, and it's going to be exponentially harder to triple it, if it's even possible at all.

I think a lot of people's awareness of batteries and lithium ion came about through Tesla and cars and thinking that battery cars green, what have you. Nevertheless, the finest minds in science have been working on improving lithium ion since way before that, since the day it came out in consumer electronic devices. EVERYBODY was and is pursuing smaller lighter slimmer, laptops, cell phones, smart watches, wireless head phones and ear buds, Bluetooth speakers, MP3 players (remember those?). It was (still is) the holy grail in the technology world. So it's a BIG ignorance, to think that this battery race all started with Tesla ten years ago.

2) electric motors: Not much room here either. They're already super efficient. Some room for improvement but they are well into the 90 percent, pushing 98 percent for some.

3) The elephant in the room... some kind of new battery tech: this is where it's going to have to go, or else we'll have to wait for portable fusion generators. But nothing seems to make it far out of the lab environment. Solid state is a 200 year old idea, and the same problems that plagued it 200 years ago, are the ones that are plaguing it today. Hyper expensive and hyper fragile, and both issues go up exponentially with size. There are some SSB's in tiny devices like pace makers.* (Don't be fooled by terminology like "semi" solid state. It's just a buzz word to get the dreamers all frothy. It has no relation to actual solid state at all, and is not a stepping stone to actual solid state.) Solid state is where all the hype is right now, but the problems are immense, and it's been "just around the corner" for a long time. Who knows if this time it's for real. Also, don't rule out some other battery tech. Nobody knows what it will be yet because again, the hopeful ideas rarely make it out of the labs. One thing is FOR SURE, the finest minds in science have been working on it since lithium ion came out, 35 years ago. It's just that once you filter out all the hopes and dreams, it remains a TOUGH scientific problem.

*My uncle died not long ago when his pace maker battery failed. Living so far away, I'm no longer close enough to the family to find out if he had a solid state battery in his, that failed. But he had a lot of money and was the type who would be interested in that kind of thing.

-Peter

My Uncle and snow skiing partner, Dr Leonard Stein, Installed one of the first nuclear Pacemakers, He also was head of Smithtown General Hospital Long Island, this was before lithium batteries, before then a patient had to have a new battery installed every one to five years.

Since the first commercialization of lithium-ion batteries in 1991, improvements have been dramatic, particularly in energy density and cost. Ongoing innovations in chemistry and manufacturing continue to push performance boundaries, especially for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage.
Key improvements over the years
Energy density
This is arguably the most significant improvement. Increased energy density allows batteries to store more energy in a smaller, lighter package, leading to extended device runtime and longer electric vehicle (EV) range.
Early 1990s: Commercial lithium-ion batteries had an energy density of approximately 100–120 Wh/kg.
Today: State-of-the-art lithium-ion cells can reach 250–300 Wh/kg. Some researchers have even achieved experimental energy densities over 700 Wh/kg.

[Chaz]

BYD sells a moderately priced (ie gas car level) EV that can get 200 miles of range in a 5 minute charge. Maybe battery tech has progressed enough.

From dead battery to going 200 miles to dead battery after being plugged into the wall for 5 minutes.

[CUDA]

Yes, solid-state batteries are a real and advancing technology, already used in small devices like pacemakers and smartwatches, and currently being scaled up for larger applications like electric vehicles. While significant progress has been made, challenges remain in achieving widespread, cost-effective, and mass-produced integration for large-scale use.

[CUDA]

China

https://youtu.be/oMVL1t3To20?si=se9yD8xZOO7D5sLo

[XstreamVking]

Yes, we will all be saved by SSB's. We have heard it for years now... Just more false hope for the EV fan-atics.

[Chaz]

There are those of us that think that we should have let Japan keep parts of China that they invaded. While others are willing to freely give China our #1 place in the food chain ..

[David]

From dead battery to going 200 miles to dead battery after being plugged into the wall for 5 minutes.

it seems like BYD can do it, but the chargers are better than what we have in North America

From my own experience with 100 kWh chargers, I can charge 5-10 minutes in the summer and 20 in real cold to gain 100 miles. 100 kWh chargers are puny, but that’s what is on the highway berween here and Toronto.