Forecast has changed

[CUDA]

https://fortune.com/2025/03/01/us-ec...ing-inflation/

I wonder WHY?

[CUDA]

https://qz.com/us-doge-musk-federal-...ect-1851767092

[David - WI]

“In other words, DOGE and tariffs combined are a mild temporary shock to the economy that will put modest upward pressure on inflation and modest downward pressure on GDP,” he wrote.

[CUDA]

https://medium.com/predict/tesla-is-...d-17b2c92b0802

[Shaun K]

https://fortune.com/2025/03/01/us-ec...ing-inflation/

I wonder WHY?

Remember Yellen said it was only transitory inflation? And in reality, said we could afford Joe's fake energy plans, fake American rescue plans, fake infrastructure plans etc etc and we could & should fund the Ukraine war ? Also while Spending hundreds of billions paying open border NGO's to flood the country w new migrants. Stacy Abrams even got 2 billion dollars lol

Well it was all a lie obviously and Quantitative Easing hasn't stopped since invoked under Obama for the 2008 crash. Just from 2008 to 2012 the US money supply tripled and has been increasing constantly every year since. We were able to do this because of our reserve currency status.

You would have to look over the fed's previous balance sheets to get exact yearly money supply increases, but the dollar is worth around 3 cents now

Increasing the money supply (Quantitative Easing) is what causes inflation. It's been a fact for thousands of years

Sorry for the Suprise but US dollar is going the same way of the deutsche mark.


Why Printing Money Causes Inflation - Economics Help (economics for dummies)

"Yes, the Romans are considered to have "printed too much money" (or minted too many coins in their time) which led to significant inflation and economic instability, particularly during the later stages of the empire, as emperors debased the currency by reducing the precious metal content in coins to fund their growing expenses, ultimately causing a loss of faith in the currency and contributing to the decline of the empire."

[CDave]

The dollar lost 24 cents under Biden's regime. That equates to 24% inflation.
Do you really expect change for the better to be quick? It takes time to right the ship when it has been run off course as badly as it has.

I expect it to take up to two years before we will see a solid improvement.

Biden screwed the pooch bad.

[David]

The US dollar did not lose 24 cents vs the Canadian dollar any time recently. From the financial times:

"The dollar has been strong in recent years because President Joe Biden has championed a strong dose of fiscal stimulus while freeing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in response to inflation. This mix of loose fiscal and tight monetary policies has made for a strong currency, as the textbooks predict."

Mr Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, recently said: "We're also looking at currency manipulation. The U.S. has a strong dollar policy, but because we have a strong dollar policy, it doesn't mean that other countries get to have a weak currency policy."

This has been called the Lake Wobegon theory of exchange rates.

[David]

The bond market thinks inflation will be higher going forward. They might know more about economics than I do, or it could just be herd mentality.

It was interesting how Mr Biden was able to create inflation everywhere on the planet. Super man. I am still wondering what happened to the bust of inflation from the 2008 financial crisis.

[CDave]

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

I was wrong it was 21.2% inflation from 2020 to 2024.

[David - WI]

It's funny to see... 90% of the liberals have realized they were deceived and are keeping their heads down and their mouths shut; the other 10% are "all-in" on stupidity and can't wait to let somebody know it!

[CUDA]

It's funny to see... 90% of the liberals have realized they were deceived and are keeping their heads down and their mouths shut; the other 10% are "all-in" on stupidity and can't wait to let somebody know it!

Please explain that statement?

I don't understand a word?

The economy is going to CRASH, It's started already, I guess you don't understand, HUH?

[CUDA]

Posted January 17, 2025 at 10:49 am by Josh Bivens
President-elect Trump is inheriting a historically strong economy
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President-elect Trump will inherit unquestionably the strongest economy for an incoming administration since the George W. Bush administration. That strong economic performance heading up to the 2001 transition, moreover, was largely buoyed by an overvalued stock market that was about to deflate and cause a recession. There are no such obvious macroeconomic imbalances that look set to drag on growth in 2025 or beyond.

While the labor market has slightly softened in recent months, job growth in December was extremely rapid and accompanied by wage growth that remained above inflation yet fully compatible with a return to 2% inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred target. In short, the labor market remains extremely strong yet in no need of policy measures to rein it in. All in all, it is hard to imagine an incoming administration wanting a stronger economic situation to inherit.

Table 1 below shows a range of measures indicating the trajectory of the economy for each incoming administration since Bill Clinton.1


Table 1
Economic conditions inherited by incoming administrations in recent decades
Averages
Monthly variables Clinton Bush Obama Trump I Biden Trump II 1989-2019 Dem GOP
Unemployment rate (%) 7.4% 3.9% 6.9% 4.8% 6.8% 4.1% 5.8% 7.0% 4.3%
Prime-age EPOP (%) 78.2% 81.3% 78.0% 78.1% 76.2% 80.5% 78.8% 77.5% 80.0%
Monthly job growth, total (annual %) 0.9% 1.6% -2.0% 1.7% -6.0% 1.4% 1.2% -2.3% 1.6%
Monthly job growth, private (annual %) 0.8% 1.6% -2.5% 1.8% -6.2% 1.3% 1.2% -2.7% 1.6%
Manufacturing job growth (annual %) -1.2% -0.5% -5.4% -0.1% -5.0% -0.5% -1.0% -3.9% -0.4%
Construction job growth (annual %) -1.1% 1.9% -9.3% 3.4% -2.9% 2.5% 1.3% -4.4% 2.6%
Inflation, overall (%) 3.1% 3.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.7%
Stock price growth (inflation-adjusted %) 6.2% -3.6% -40.1% 4.5% 13.7% 28.8% 6.5% -6.7% 9.9%
Quarterly variables
Real GDP growth (annual %) 3.7% 4.0% 0.3% 1.8% -1.4% 2.7% 2.6% 0.8% 2.8%
Real GDP per capita growth (annual %) 2.3% 2.9% -0.7% 1.0% -1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 2.0%
Real private business investment growth (annual %) 4.3% 8.5% 0.2% 2.0% -6.3% 3.9% 4.7% -0.6% 4.8%
Real wages and salaries growth (% annual) -0.8% 0.4% -2.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% -0.5% 0.9%
The incoming Trump administration will inherit an unemployment rate of 4.1%, the lowest since George W. Bush was elected. Meanwhile, President Biden inherited an unemployment rate of 6.8%.
The share of adults between the ages of 25 and 54 with a job—also known as the prime-age employment-to-population ratio (EPOP)—sat at 80.5% at the beginning of November 2024. This is its highest handover value since the 2000 presidential election.
Overall and private-sector job growth are running at their fastest pace since Trump was first elected in 2016.
Manufacturing job growth has been running at a negative pace during every single election since Bill Clinton. But, the manufacturing decline being inherited by the incoming Trump administration is at its slowest pace since the first Trump administration.
Construction job growth is running at its fastest pace since the first Trump administration.
Inflation is a slightly different story: In 2024, inflation was running at a 2.7% pace in December before the inauguration, its highest pace since the George W. Bush administration inherited 3.4% inflation. The first Trump administration inherited a 1.8% inflation rate, and the Biden administration inherited a 1.2% inflation rate.
Perhaps most strikingly, the incoming Trump administration is inheriting extraordinarily fast real (inflation-adjusted) growth in the stock market. The stock market grew 28.8% over the past year, more than twice as fast as what was handed off to President Biden (the previous fastest pace at a presidential administration transition).
Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita are both running at their fastest pace since 2000.
Growth in real private business investment is also running at its fastest pace since 2000.
Real wage growth is running at a pace (1.1%) comparable with the 2016 (1.3%) and 2020 (1.4%) elections. Real wage growth in pre-2016 elections was running at a much slower pace, even in the 2000 election.
Besides the striking strength of the economy being handed off to the incoming Trump administration, the table also shows that Republican administrations inherit much stronger economies. On every measure tracked in the table except inflation, Republicans on average inherit economies on better trajectories—including faster measures of employment, real wage growth, GDP growth, and stock market appreciation, along with lower unemployment. Democrats, in turn, have inherited lower inflation rates on average.

This aligns with evidence from a previous report showing the strong Democratic advantage in macroeconomic performance during their terms in office (i.e., not just at hand-off to changed administrations).

Those looking to make serious evaluations of how well the incoming Trump administration manages the economy need to keep this extraordinarily strong inheritance in mind as they make these judgments.

Footnote

1. For the monthly variables, we used data available until November of the presidential election years. For the unemployment rate and prime-age EPOPs, we used a rolling three-month average of each to reduce volatility. All other variables measured a year-over-year change comparing October in the election year with the previous October. The unemployment rate, the prime-age EPOP, employment growth (overall, private, manufacturing, and construction), and inflation (or the annual change in the overall consumer price index) were all obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) online databases. The real stock market data was obtained from Robert Shiller’s online database. For quarterly data, we used data from the 3rd quarter of the election year. We used the change relative to the 3rd quarter of the previous year to compare. The measures of GDP and business investment were both from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). For measuring real wages, we used the change in hourly wage and salaries from the Employment Cost Index (ECI) from the Obama administration on. We deflated this by the overall consumer price index. For the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations the ECI data were not consistently available, so we used the average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) of the BLS.

[JPEROG]

I am sure the Gardner is in the 10% based on how many times he has responded/pasted in this post. If Trump can end the wars that we are funding, get the new "real job" count up with real economic newcomers and growth in our country, lower energy cost, slow inflation, get rates lowered, stop the corrupt spending with DOGE, and sell a few gold cards, we are going to be back on track. I have total confidence that he and his team are putting us back on course and ready for a good rip.


Joe

[mragu]

I am sure the Gardner is in the 10% based on how many times he has responded/pasted in this post. If Trump can end the wars that we are funding, get the new "real job" count up with real economic newcomers and growth in our country, lower energy cost, slow inflation, get rates lowered, stop the corrupt spending with DOGE, and sell a few gold cards, we are going to be back on track. I have total confidence that he and his team are putting us back on course and ready for a good rip.


Joe

100% Joe!! I don’t even try to explain to a lib. Too bad they get to go along for the red wave

[Shaun K]

Posted January 17, 2025 at 10:49 am by Josh Bivens
President-elect Trump is inheriting a historically strong economy
BlueskyFacebookShare
President-elect Trump will inherit unquestionably the strongest economy .

Affiliated with the labor movement, the EPI is described as presenting a left-leaning viewpoint on public policy issues. Since 2021, EPI has been led by economist Heidi Shierholz, the former chief economist of the Department of Labor.



Only a sucker would believe this political rubbish from the Obama admin, housing market tanked months ago lol 37 TRILLION in Debt, real unemployment around 20%