Forecast has changed

[Shaun K]

The bond market thinks inflation will be higher going forward. They might know more about economics than I do, or it could just be herd mentality.

It was interesting how Mr Biden was able to create inflation everywhere on the planet. Super man. I am still wondering what happened to the bust of inflation from the 2008 financial crisis.

They printed their way out of any correction . What's to wonder about ?

[Shaun K]

The dollar lost 24 cents under Biden's regime. That equates to 24% inflation.
Do you really expect change for the better to be quick? It takes time to right the ship when it has been run off course as badly as it has.

I expect it to take up to two years before we will see a solid improvement.

Biden screwed the pooch bad.

Correction needed, Pain incoming


Edward Dowd is a Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm. He has worked on Wall Street most of his career, spanning both credit and equity markets. Some firms he worked for include HSBC, Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette, and Independence Investments.


*Most notably, Edward worked at BlackRock as a portfolio manager, managing a $14 billion growth equity portfolio for ten years. After BlackRock, he founded OceanSquare Asset Management with two former BlackRock colleagues.

[CUDA]

https://www.politico.eu/article/fran...gainst-russia/

[David]

In 2008/2009, there was massive US fiscal and monetary stimulus, without inflation. In Covid, both stimulus' were much bigger than in the financial crisis. I had not known how much bigger until I looked at the data this evening. Agreed, that should have been inflationary. But the Covid stimulus, fiscal and monetary, in the US was much bigger than the stimulus in Europe. Yet the inflation rates in both regions were similar. Something else, like supply chain break downs, or a war, must have been contributing factors.

Having said that, I still expect that the US deficit, which is massive compared to just about any other country, will one day bite you. Of course I have been thinking that for years, and also thinking that Tesla's stock price is way overvalued. I am 66. Perhaps I will live long enough to be correct.

[powerabout]

The US dollar did not lose 24 cents vs the Canadian dollar any time recently. From the financial times:

"The dollar has been strong in recent years because President Joe Biden has championed a strong dose of fiscal stimulus while freeing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in response to inflation. This mix of loose fiscal and tight monetary policies has made for a strong currency, as the textbooks predict."

Mr Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, recently said: "We're also looking at currency manipulation. The U.S. has a strong dollar policy, but because we have a strong dollar policy, it doesn't mean that other countries get to have a weak currency policy."

This has been called the Lake Wobegon theory of exchange rates.

Just check the price of gold to your currency, thats how much it has gone backwards as the same unit of gold buys the same items today as it ever did

[David]

As if I could buy anything except money with gold. Gold is not a currency.

[JPEROG]

Dowd is a very smart guy. He clearly states that Biden and his administrations spending caused the mud hole that we are going to have travel thru. Immigration and Biden's money printer were absolute suicide to our economy just like we were screaming at the time it was taking place. Hallelujah that we have Donald J. Trump/Elon Musk and the entire Trump administration in place to unwind the government spending, immigration spending, and active deportations as fast as humanly possible. As Edward Dowd stated in the, "very informative interview posted by Shawn", we will come out of this with boom and in 2026 and if you live in a blue state the next year is going to be tough.

Joe

[JPEROG]

As if I could buy anything except money with gold. Gold is not a currency.

You can sell gold and get the same value in currency that you had when you bought the gold. There will be no more in physical gold but a lot more in physical dollars at time of sale. Does that break it down into enough of an elementary form for you to grasp? Everyone was told when Biden was elected "You better catch up or you will have nothing, assets are all that it is good in an inflationary market-cash is trash". This is all very basic economics 101. People need to understand and accept that liberal spending will kill us all--We have plenty of real life examples ex: California, N.Y., Illinois, are a total mess. Its no different they your personal household, you spend more then comes in, the lights get shut off.

Joe

[6Killer]

You can sell gold and get the same value in currency that you had when you bought the gold. There will be no more in physical gold but a lot more in physical dollars at time of sale. Does that break it down into enough of an elementary form for you to grasp? Everyone was told when Biden was elected "You better catch up or you will have nothing, assets are all that it is good in an inflationary market-cash is trash". This is all very basic economics 101. People need to understand and accept that liberal spending will kill us all--We have plenty of real life examples ex: California, N.Y., Illinois, are a total mess. Its no different they your personal household, you spend more then comes in, the lights get shut off.

Joe

Joe, wasn't that the guy that was schooling me on GDP and Inflation....

[JPEROG]

Unbelievable, sometimes its like reading something the Gardener would post. Just like you don't need guns in CN.

Joe

[David]

Forgive me oh wise ones, for I miss interpreted "The dollar lost 24 cents under Biden's regime" as meaning that the US dollar had dropped vs other currencies. Of course the US dollar is still strong. And of course, like the rest of the world, you have had inflation.

Since you have mastered econ 101, and I have not, how come the US inflation rate is comparable to Europe's, despite the much greater fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US? Hint, Is this entirely the result of commodities being priced in $US?

[JPEROG]

Did you not watch the very informative video that Shaun posted? Biden let between 15 and 30 million people into our country, gave them all spending tokens, borrowed or printed more money to house, feed, and clothe them. 99% of that money was dumped back into our economy the day it was issued (ever heard the term "easy come, easy go")? When you dump that kind of money into any economic system, it will drive demand which drives prices (all sectors are effected). Biden led the world with inflation on our home ground and all of the products we import have been at higher demand causing inflationary rates to all that were affiliated with us. Supply and Demand theory ALWAYS hold true--new corvettes are the best example that comes to mind.

The EU had similar affects but on a much smaller scale do to proper boarders. They have been in a localized economic downturn much more severe then what the US has seen at this point.

Joe

[Shaun K]

Dowd is a very smart guy. He clearly states that Biden and his administrations spending caused the mud hole that we are going to have travel thru. Immigration and Biden's money printer were absolute suicide to our economy just like we were screaming at the time it was taking place. Hallelujah that we have Donald J. Trump/Elon Musk and the entire Trump administration in place to unwind the government spending, immigration spending, and active deportations as fast as humanly possible. As Edward Dowd stated in the, "very informative interview posted by Shawn", we will come out of this with boom and in 2026 and if you live in a blue state the next year is going to be tough.

Joe

He was a superstar w blackrock on their way up for a decade. IMO he is not politically biased and calculates on facts alone.

[CUDA]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/dodg...k-tariff-price