Signs of our local bad economy getting much worse!

[Speed Jr.]

This is purely and economic issue, not technology. The under $200k boats demand has plummeted. If boats don't sell, motors don't sell. In some segments, new orders are down 50%. There was a huge replacement of boats since covid. Money was cheap, people bought a ton of new boats. These new boats have lower maintenance intervals and a retention time we haven't yet hit. So.....there your have it. I read a Magazine article in 2022 saying that this would happen in the coming years. Its not a Mercury thing, its a marine industry thing. Only idiots think this is 2stroke/4stroke/electric related......

[pcrussell50]

Rumors are going around from people I know to be in the know that had the corp. Not spent all the foolish money on r and d, testing and tooling for the lackluster EV program…

Companies should be very deliberate about what they spend on BEV programs. Because there is little blood to be squeezed from the motor end of it. Electric motors have 90% efficient for like 100 years. And they’ve only crept up a little since then. Research money is poorly spent on the motor. The nut that needs cracking is the battery. And that’s been stalled out on lithium ion for nearly 35 years despite the finest minds in science working madly on it nonstop since it first came out. I’m not sure what Mercury blew all it’s money on re BEV, but if it was the motor and not the battery, that was the easy part and they should not be in the pickle they are in. Further I don’t know if Mercury has the expertise in battery tech to be doing the Nobel Laureate level science that needs to be kept up to solve the battery problem.

-Peter

[CUDA]

Rumors are going around from people I know to be in the know that had the corp. Not spent all the foolish money on r and d, testing and tooling for the lackluster EV program, the company wouldn't be in the state that it's in financially and probably could weather this down turn in sales. Just something to think about. It's kinda like what Harley Davidson went through with their failures with designing, testing, marketing a EV product that ended up to be to expensive and that no one wanted to buy in the first place. I'm thinking Mercury is finding themselves in the same position

I have been a biker since 1969, and for someone at HD to think an EV was in HD's future is clueless about their own product and customer. Must have had MBA s

[pcrussell50]

This is purely and economic issue, not technology. The under $200k boats demand has plummeted…

this is probably true in the giant vehicle loving USA, and our recreational boaters.

But there is a whole other world out there, the developing world in particular, that rely on small AFFORDABLE outboards just to feed their families. Most of them live in places where carburetors aren’t banned and can cut a carb base gasket out of a cereal box if they need to fish that day. Those kinds of motors probably don’t carry the kinds of margins that a 400R or an F250 do, of course. And with as easy as it is to keep a carb motor going, they probably don’t have the short replacement interval that complex motors have either, so maybe not as much money in it for the manufacturers.

I still love when I’m back in Australia* or somewhere else that didn’t ban carb two strokes, what an essentially brand new carb two, stroke looks like if they continued in production. It’s also telling how many people even in an advanced country like Australia still bought carb two strokes, when they had a government that allowed it. It’s always interesting to see what people will choose, when they are free enough to be allowed a choice.

*I think Australia allowed them through 2019 or so, IIRC.

-Peter

[Brad Zastrow]

I was told by a Mercury rep that Mercury racing is doing very well. The consumer motors are hurt by high interest rates as many people finance their boats. However, Mercury market share is up. I also think the Covid bubble of buying campers and boats has slowed down. By the way consumers want nothing to do with two strokes and do not care about a little extra weight on the back of their pontoon.

[pcrussell50]

By the way consumers want nothing to do with two strokes and do not care about a little extra weight on the back of their pontoon.

You've got the money to travel internationally. But do you? Do you pay attention to the boating scene in countries where carbureted two strokes are either not banned or were not banned until recently? I'm going to guess that you don't. Because I don't think you could make that statement with a straight face, if you do.

-Peter

[Brad Zastrow]

I do not care about boats in third world countries. I am talking about the market here in the USA. Ask any dealer if there is a market for two-strokes. Nobody wants them on their new pontoons, CC's, and family boats. Amazing how some people cannot embrace new technology. Pleasure boat sales are down simple as that. The bubble burst on outdoor recreational toys. HI-Performance is rocking. FYI: Two-stroke outboards are not banned in the USA. There is just no market for them anymore.

[pcrussell50]

I do not care about boats in third world countries. I am talking about the market here in the USA. Ask any dealer if there is a market for two-strokes. Nobody wants them on their new pontoons, CC's, and family boats. Amazing how some people cannot embrace new technology. Pleasure boat sales are down simple as that. The bubble burst on outdoor recreational toys. HI-Performance is rocking.

Australia is not a third world country. (Didn't the tech behind the Optimax originate there?) They allowed carb two strokes through 2019. New (or newish) carb two strokes are everywhere. As with the USA, eventually, as the coercive noose tightens people who want to boat, will start running out of choices and be forced to either pay up or get out of boating.

-Peter

[Brad Zastrow]

Australia is not a third world country. (Didn't the tech behind the Optimax originate there?) They allowed carb two strokes through 2019. New (or newish) carb two strokes are everywhere. As with the USA, eventually, as the coercive noose tightens people who want to boat, will start running out of choices and be forced to either pay up or get out of boating.

-Peter

Not sure what your point is, but if someone does not have the funds to buy a new boat there are plenty is old used boats available. The conversation is about Mercury laying off people and the reasons why.

[pcrussell50]

Not sure what your point is…

My point is simple, Brad. When governments forcibly dictate a market, you don't really know what the market actually wants. When people live in a free enough society that allows them to have a wide range of choices, unfettered by odious regulation, many will choose boats and motors that are affordable to buy, light on the transom, and easy to maintain, instead of things that are the opposite of all of those things. We know this, because we have seen this to be true.

***

I do not care about boats in third world countries.

You may not care about third world countries, where cost and reliability are more important than anything else, but they generate a market signal that at least some motor manufacturers are happy to meet... Which they do, because they are free from odious regulation that prevents them from doing it.

-Peter

[JPEROG]

I tend to agree that there would be a small market for lower cost new tow stroke outboards if they were available (not enough for a manufacture to chase in the U.S. market). I also see the test tank waters of today compared to test tank waters ten years ago. Not only is the footprint much less today, the performance is better then ever. On the matter of boat sales; if you are not self employed with the ability to raise your income as personal expenses continue to increase, you are screwed. Three things that every person uses are very high in today's world: 1. housing, 2. energy cost, 3. food cost--These three things combined toss a boat out of the budget for a large percentage of Americans. Now we are going to see the layoffs, U.S. workers will compete with Biden's 11 Million visitors for jobs, consumer debt will default, and people will continue to pull their spending back. People are tired of everything being political but politics and policies control our future so it needs to be talked about and acted upon.

My prediction is this; Trump gets re-elected and things will bounce back stronger then they have ever been.

Joe

[RiverRat71]

I think the days of Merc having enough customers to buy 50-100K engines is behind them for a minute. Maybe they will pay attention to us little guys that want a 15-20k engine to put on an Alli. Maybe wishful thinking but just maybe they will start thinking about boaters that don't want to make pay ments on a mota for a boat that cost more than most peoples homes. Hell, a 500R cost more than most peoples first home. WTF? I think reality has set in. RR

[pcrussell50]

I tend to agree that there would be a small market for lower cost new tow stroke outboards if they were available (not enough for a manufacture to chase in the U.S. market).

You probably know that I'm not so sure about that. In Australia, where new carb two strokes weren't banned until fairly recently, you see a lot of ... surprise... new carb two strokes. Australia has a very water/maritime-centric culture. I would bet you would be surprised at what you would see if Americans were free enough to have the same choice.

People are tired of everything being political but politics and policies control our future so it needs to be talked about and acted upon.

Truer words were never spoken, mate. 100% agreement. People who wax sanctimonious, trying to portray themselves as above the politics are either fools or liars. It affects all of us. In fact, acting on it is the cornerstone of democratic society.

My prediction is this; Trump gets re-elected and things will bounce back stronger then they have ever been.

Well, we already know what governance policies opposite of Trump's bring us. We are living it.

-Peter

[David - WI]

Two-strokes & carburetors aren't really "banned" here; except possibly in California. The EPA only sets compliance standards and it's (generally) up the manufacturers to decide how they comply. Polaris sells two-stokes and turbocharged two-strokes:

https://www.polaris.com/en-us/snowmo...iot-9r-engine/
https://www.polaris.com/en-us/snowmo...-boost-engine/

I think the cost of making an emissions compliant carburetor would be higher than the cost of fuel injection at this point, so why bother?

[skialot2]

If it were light enough to replace the 2.4/200, on the kind of boats that the 2.4/200 came on, and at an equivalent (inflation-adjusted), price, it would sell a ton.

How much was a 2.4/200 in 1989? (Even ignoring the weight and complex expensive maintenance), How much does 200hp cost today? Has it gone up with the CPI? Or is it waaay more today?

-Peter

In 1989 a brand new 115 mercury was $5-6K and a 200 was $10-11K. Now a new Mercury 115 is $10-11K and a 200 Pro XS is $21-22K. So, in 35 years outboard prices have roughly doubled. Basically, everything else has tripled or quadrupled or more. In 1987 I priced a brand new 17' Checkmate. It was $6200 for just the boat, no motor. How much do you think a new 17' would be today, if they still made them. $25-30K?

Here is a new Pro XS V6 175 for less than $20K

New Models Eagle Marine Martinez, CA (925) 229-4881 (eaglemarineonline.com)

It weighs 475 lbs. All but the lightest of light boats could hold that. My 2.5 200 carb is 407 lbs. That is only 68 lbs. difference. And if your boat can hold a 505 lb. 3.0L Optimax V6. It can also hold a 511 lb. 300R V8.