stock market

[daytrader818]

Market is really volitile lately. I hope anybody thats long here is careful about what they buy. We could be in for a short term retracement. What happens to the dollar has alot to do with it. Good luck to everybody.:smiletest:

[Hydrophobic guy]

I peeled out long ago now just into earl. ;)

[berdes]

Been waiting for this next BIG dip and saving $$. Guess should have been saving rubles
or euros or even yen!

[mr_velocity]

Couple months ago I went to a handful of options strategies, mostly calendars and verticals, while closely managing the risk. Depending on the month been returning 15% - 66% (best month) each and every month. Do nothing much longer then 1 month at a time. I'm convinced buying and holding is the strategy of suckers. On the down side I'm not adding any value to society with these trades. Don't let pyro know :D

One of my favorite trades are on rather thinly traded hypes by Cramer, especially when he makes the call on Friday. The stock will jump huge on Monday morning, by mid afternoon I have my put spread on the stock and by Thursday afternoon or Friday morning I'm out, usually with double digit returns. TKCL returned 40% in that time, COGT is more voltile but I still managed almost 30% with a put spread. I love that guy :thumbsup:

[sho305]

I'm slow, I been waiting for fall number two and maybe it is here. When it gets low again I'll buy. I can't see it going on this way with no consumer but what do I know. Oil looked scary at 80 too.

[Robby321]

[QUOTE=sho305;1810822 I can't see it going on this way with no consumer[/QUOTE]

Yep, I agree. we are far from outta the woods
Got some artificial economy pump with Cash/clunkers, and $8000 first home buy, but jobs still suck, and we live in a consumer driven economy, and they simply shut the motor off.

GDP out tomorow
.

[daytrader818]

I got blasted for recomending walmart a few years ago as a holiday trade. Hey, I dont love the F*&^ing place either, but its here to stay, so if we can make a few bucks, what the hell, IF the dollar starts to climb be careful of any commodities stocks or being long anything. I know theres guys on here who are smarter then I am in this stuff. (BOAT GO FASTER For one)

[j_martin]

I ain't too worried about the dollar climbing.

[mr_velocity]

I got blasted for recomending walmart a few years ago as a holiday trade. Hey, I dont love the F*&^ing place either, but its here to stay, so if we can make a few bucks, what the hell, IF the dollar starts to climb be careful of any commodities stocks or being long anything. I know theres guys on here who are smarter then I am in this stuff. (BOAT GO FASTER For one)

I opened a calendar spread (Nov/Dec) on WMT on 9/28 that is up 16%. The stock has moved a little so its time to do a small adjustment. I'll probably stay with this one a little longer.

[jmg944t]

THe dollar climbing.... I suspect it is almost time for them to torpedo the market and bring the dollar back up again. Time will tell.

[Backfire]

Anybody see Glenn Beck today? About the 130% increase in the money supply this last year?
Backfire ;)

[Robby321]

Anybody see Glenn Beck today? About the 130% increase in the money supply this last year?
Backfire ;)

Not yet.. catch it later 2 nite. The "opey azhole, had shoved TRILLIONS...in yer debt kids..and ZIP, to show for it...just MAJOR GIVEAWAYS, yer tax bucks..

[nyseguy]

The problem right now is with the dollar/carry trade. With rates at zero you've got all the major players, both foreign and domestic, financing their trading with the dollar. As the dollar moves higher and that carry trade starts to unwind, the nervous players will start buying back, firming the dollar. The problem will be that everyone short will start running for the door to cover at the same time- and we know how that plays out. If that happens it could be a repeat of last/this year- let's hope it doesn't!!!

If your long and have nice profits from- tighten those stops up, or start unwinding a portion of the position. And if you think that this will be the major correction that EVERYONE has been waiting for and you decide to go short- just be very careful. This market has whipsawed the best of the best this year.

Just my 2 cents...

[CDave]

Bought some Ford stock at around 3 bucks. Wish I wouldn't have listened to my dad and bought in when it was a buck and change. Still, I'm doing good but thinking bout selling and sitting out awhile. I have a bad feeling it's gonna go down.

[whipper]

Bought some Ford stock at around 3 bucks. Wish I wouldn't have listened to my dad and bought in when it was a buck and change. Still, I'm doing good but thinking bout selling and sitting out awhile. I have a bad feeling it's gonna go down.
I did the same. i just got a letter stating F is going to start paying dividends.:thumbsup: I picked up some MSFT at 18 around the same day and a real rocket ride PCX at 3 bucks. If it wasn't Xmas time I would dump MSFT but it looks like a spike to 30 isn't out of the question? I have a stop in just incase. Kitco is calling gold to $2000 OZ!!:eek: Thats not good for the green back. I never usually played stocks just currencies on Forex but our Province B.C. gave forex the boot last month so I'm stuck playing the stock market now. FXCM was awesome govt regulatory BS!!! The Dow looks like its going to make its way back to the lows soon. The chart over the long term always runs up in bad times then shoots down one more time before correcting and then times improve. Seeing no real improvement in the economy as a whole it cant be ruled out as nothing more than false run the last 6 months. Wishfull thinking. Volumes have been up and prices down not a good combo. Some holdings might be a good sell then short at these levels. Got a few picked out for that.

[sho305]

How about them moves? What does that signal when you go back to 200 points a day moves.....its like putting your finger under a nose....you don't know if a big blast is coming or not.;) Maybe its like chine walk:D

[daytrader818]

Wonder if the major trend is gonna switch to the downside. Thats what I see, but Im blind in one eye and cant see out of the other. CAREFUL anything long here. The government sachs presses must be running out of ink.:leaving:

[whipper]

Its just control. The market makers run up the markets long then when they see fit its time to dump and short to the ground. Smiling all the way.:D When retail starts buying instatutional money starts selling. Usually the Volume is a good indication when the run is over. Low Volume raised price followed by high volume not much movement. That means retail buying instatution selling to me trying to hold the price to get out and revese there position to a short. Thats just my Opinion. Kinda like a rear end everyone has one.:D

[Robby321]

Sick of the talking heads. CNBC on now, and gee, not long ago popping champagne at 10'000. Dow now 9712. GDP up, CELEBRATE..(ya, cash for clunkers). Yesterdays gains, todays loss. Recession is officially over! Wait, that was yesterday.
Damn joke....

[Hydrophobic guy]

Oh, come on now the Dow only dropped 250 points it still has another 9700 left to go. :rolleyes:

[sho305]

I'm not sure why I'd watch the market run all the way up to 10K and then go buy stocks....duh....in this environment. If consumer spending was going up and unenjoyment down then I'd consider it. I think we have a lot of unemployment ahead of us, maybe other issues. I wonder if this commercial real estate stuff will ever come out, or treasuries will ever go up. Health care, cap and trade, they are major economic issues, I don't know where the market confidence is coming from....sure looks like manipulators.

[Robby321]

I'm not sure why I'd watch the market run all the way up to 10K and then go buy stocks....duh....in this environment. If consumer spending was going up and unenjoyment down then I'd consider it. I think we have a lot of unemployment ahead of us, maybe other issues. I wonder if this commercial real estate stuff will ever come out, or treasuries will ever go up. Health care, cap and trade, they are major economic issues, I don't know where the market confidence is coming from....sure looks like manipulators.

We STILL got housing probs here, in Western WA. I know of THREE cleared, 60-100 acre subdivisions here in town..(I'm rural water front, end peninsula, 20 miles town), been cleared for a good 5 years now, roads put in, streetlights, but like a nuke bomb that only takes out houses, hit. WAY, overgrown weeds.
Commercial R/E?..same..leveled woodland, major corners in town. 10% occupy those places. And those are the anchor stores, think some drug chain, or corporate food stuffer. Rest that are there? HA! Lawyers, R/E, fast food joints, "Check into Cash", BS "Back Pain Specialist", all the stuff we really don't need.
BUT...there is a commercial building boom going on. AND, we are also the state CAPITAL!..(Olympia, WA)
So far is a major new complex, state liquor board, new town hall, WAY too much state buildings, and that makes me think.."your freedom, will soon be in our control"..as we knows whats good for you...

[CDave]

Just wait until Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year are past. Spending is going to dive, bills are going to come due.........
The recession is over, yeah right.

[Robby321]

Just wait until Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year are past. Spending is going to dive, bills are going to come due.........
The recession is over, yeah right.

Damn right....AND, a LOT of people "locking the door, lights out..Halloween"...as the scumbags see a good opportunity, for YOU, opening the door, whack ya over the head a tire iron, ransack yer house, rape the wife, etc. Not here me rural, but any citys?...BEWARE..the jackoffs are out there. And want more than "candy"...sad, we have left the US get to this...OK, not "WE", but "them.."...
PS..aint Christmas over? Saw the crap out (made in China)..back late September?

[whipper]

Just wait until Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year are past. Spending is going to dive, bills are going to come due.........
The recession is over, yeah right.

:iagree: It takes years from what my 96 year old Grandpa said before he passed away to go down fully. My dads 80 and a VERY savvy investor also. Most people can borrow and borrow but each year they just get further in debt. I cant see the recovery taking less than 5 years to start to happen from last year. Winter is historically the worst months and summers are just pick me ups from the lows then right back to worse lows the next winter. If you pull a chart of the DOW look to the pattern from 01-03. Thats were were at I think right now. See how the W pattern was formed. We could see a spike to 6000 again then start to see more buying with every one thinking its a bottom again. It might be from 6000 but I'm not fully invested until we see below 7000 one more time then a slow recovery. Anything fast like this last year isn't sustainable. Its like liquor its quicker but not as sustainable as wine.:D Hears a chart you can narrow down the times top left. I cant post my technical chart off my station to web pages? http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=20&freq=2

[Robby321]

My take? Clinton did zip, but ride the internet money boom. GB comes in?..9/11, and just AFTER the tanking stock market/crash. People, who KNEW.."short the piss out this market"
Worked. NOW, Greenspanny free money after 9/11, years..close to zero rates...Helocs, buy a second house, etc.
THEN..Iraq war..has kept us building something.
We went consumer.."Chinese cheap"..the same time.
NOW?,..trillions of money WE DON"T HAVE"..to pump us up.
So far..aint working. But a massive debt, OWNED by the Chinese.
Gov now running banks, car company's, soon health care, ..........
Does ANYBODY SEE?..but me..that ANY democracy, in HISTORY, aint lasted more than 200 years.
We are for SURE, "pushing the best times"..at 233 years....soon some major "coming".
Read ANY HISTORY BOOK...any country..but think back besides our only few years, go back 200 years..
History forgotten, is history repeat.
Its simple to me..(pushing 60, Nam Vet) ...life now is a simple dumb think.."a bus crashed full people, under a bridge. Then a train going over crashed on top, and landed on the bus. Then another bus came over, and IT crashed on top all."
OK.???? Just who did they go for first?
Was it the possible survivors the bottom bus?.....or the whiners at the last bus...."OHH, MY NECK HURTS!..AND I SPILLED HOT COFFEE ON MY LAP!
Nuff me..glad I live a private, end of road/waterfront..azzholes can handle "town"...

[Ranger976]

I'd keep a close watch towards year end, reason: the health of the economy is determined by how the holiday spending panned out....in the past once that report comes out there's always a rise or fall in the market. Additionally, unemployment STILL is lingering at an all time high and that friggin skippy administration the other day reported that since that nut job took office they created 650K jobs:icon_bs:....my ass. On an ending note, monthly forclosures are at an all time high, and still haven't been purged out of the system. The housing market will be volitile for some time until they're gone.....I fly for a financial institution that is heavy into the stock market and from what I hear our firm is taking a conservative stance for the next few mo's. My opinion is that there will be substantial volitility till 2qt next year.....to much at stake and being measured at the year mark for that nutjob the American public put in office.....his numbers are plumenting and american confidence is taking a nose dive....:mad: he down right sucks.....with Minnesota being a heavy libr l state the people I know that voted for that POS are now regretting it.....go figure

[pyro]

Great post, Robby. :thumbsup:

At least I'm not the only one with the doom and gloom outlook...

[OldMercsRule]

I read Harry Dents' most recent book this summer while I was out on Prince William sound fishin' on a legal limit seiner. (It was soooooo dry I could have never read it if I had any distraction.) ;)

It is the third one of his I have read. It was written and released in 8/2008 prior to the hammer drop in September.

Harry is cornsistent, (that is why I like him). he is not a perma bull, (like Kudlow), or a perma bear, (like Precter). Ya don't wanna take his industry picks or other stuff the big wire houses, (what is left of 'em) market with. His magnitude calls are also way off. That said: he has the macro picture as acurate as any in his crystal ball, IMHO, n' has fer over twenty years.

Learned a few things (as I always do from a good read), when I read the most recent book, and he now uses Elliott wave, n' Ned Davis so his work is much more sophisticated then the 1988 book I read that was also SPOT ON. :D

He was the first major economist to use demographics ta forcast stock market trends. IMHO the single most accurate facter fer long term forcastin'. ;)

His view is not good. I was allready a bear when I read it and he reinforced me view. Hope he (and lil' ol' me), are wrong, but bet we are not.

We are in a strong liquidity fueled reflex rally IMHO, n' they are always very sharp. Ya don't think smart money is buyin' dirt now do ya? ;)

The rate of climb has leveled off since August, and when Barry hits our credit limit with his foolish spendin' we are likely gonna get spanked real REAL bad.

Only an opinion, n' as one of me bud's, (who may be here as I saw his screen name on an older post, [if it is him]) always says: "yer mileage will vary". JR

[Robby321]

JR

Hey Dude! Welcome aboard. How ya been? Still got yer prop sitting here, Flatbottom pickled winter. More fun here than IB...bitchin still legal! Robby..(Scaaty IB)

[OldMercsRule]

Hey Dude! Welcome aboard. How ya been? Still got yer prop sitting here, Flatbottom pickled winter. More fun here than IB...bitchin still legal! Robby..(Scaaty IB)

Hey Bro!

I'm still collectin' ol' towers picked up a 950 and a 1500 since we last talked. gonna hang the 1500 on a Glasply cutty fer the sound.

I'm still on i.b.o.a.t.s n' THT, n a few others here n' there. Good ta run into one of me buds here!!! :D:D JR

[Robby321]

Hey Bro!

I'm still collectin' ol' towers picked up a 950 and a 1500 since we last talked. gonna hang the 1500 on a Glasply cutty fer the sound.

I'm still on i.b.o.a.t.s n' THT, n a few others here n' there. Good ta run into one of me buds here!!! :D:D JR

Dude,..(guys ignore this post, I know we should PM, but an old IL6 freak!) nice to see ya here....my crazy Guru here, scored BIG time, old Mercs, AND, a 22 foot Tunnel..one pic (coming).. has a Twister he did, crank up rebuild.
Pix taken not long ago..2 weeks..motors moved out, ski boat in the small shop, helped him. Last few pix are what he scored, for a freaking SONG! Try $100 each!
Again..ya need ANY IL6 stuff, we got it..(others too, PM me).
DAMN, best summer in decades here..and ALL my boats DID NOT BREAK!
Wanna bs, hit me a side, PM..Robby

http://i35.tinypic.com/2rrrwqs.jpg

http://i35.tinypic.com/4ghh74.jpg

http://i33.tinypic.com/wmckdi.jpg

http://i35.tinypic.com/suxbt1.jpg

[pyro]

http://i33.tinypic.com/wmckdi.jpg


My dad has a '92 ProStar 190 just like that one, except that he had the marina custom stitch a matching magenta stripe on the motor cover along with blue and gray. Cooool...

[Robby321]

My dad has a '92 ProStar 190 just like that one, except that he had the marina custom stitch a matching magenta stripe on the motor cover along with blue and gray. Cooool...

Its the kids ride, lives on a lake...gets them out his hair..so he can go back the shop..."play with OLDMERCS!"

[OldMercsRule]

NYU's Roubini 'splains the fuel fer the current reflex rallies in stocks, emergin' markets, commods, n' such. ;)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html

BTW: He has been spot on in his calls over the last few years, (a real bright feller)!!!

Remember: commodity cycles are normally thirty year affairs n' the last real big peak was in 1980. ;)

N' the baby boom demographic peak, (the mother of 'em all) peaked late 2008 early 2009. Not good........... :eek:

N' we did have the profound wisdom in 11/2008 ta ellect the least qualified POTUS since Abe Lincoln, (n' we got real lucky with ol' honest Abe), not likely this time around, as most with eyes can see. :eek:

N' add to the gravity of matters with Nasty Nancy n' Horrible Harry tryin' ta nationalize 17% of the tax payin' private economy n' finance it outa yer taxes from yer very own wallet???????? Not Good.

A lil' history fer those who don't know: the rally off the lows of 1932 were the steepest in history, (n' we likely have not hit the [32 lows yet in this cycle], IM not so HO). Yet even if Feb March 2009 was the 1932 type low, 1932 was not the end of the Great Depression, (in any way shape or form). :smiletest:

Hope I'm wrong; fear I'm not.

Enjoy the read.

Not investment advice, jus' the musins' of a feller with only one functional brain cell. ;) Good luck, we are all gonna need some. JR

[daytrader818]

Mr. Velocity, I read your posts about your stock option adventures on the other thread when working for an employer. (BRB thread) Sounds like u do much better on your own with option contracts.:iagree:

[mr_velocity]

Mr. Velocity, I read your posts about your stock option adventures on the other thread when working for an employer. (BRB thread) Sounds like u do much better on your own with option contracts.:iagree:

Bit of a difference in strategy though. On my own it look for managing risk (manage your risk and the profits will take care of themselves), on the employment side I'm looking for the big win.